2025 To Be Reset Year for EV Sales
E-Vision Intelligence Report
January 2025
Key Findings
- Calendar Year 2025 EV Retail Share Projected to Hold Steady at 9.1%: A combination of uncertainty about the future of federal EV incentives, possible tariffs on both EV and gasoline-powered vehicles and ongoing challenges with the public charging network, have created a series of headwinds to EV adoption, which will result in EV growth stagnating in 2025. JD Power projects total EV retail share to hold at 9.1% in 2025, even with the total growth rate the industry saw in 2024 when 1.2 million vehicles were sold.
- New Growth Coming from Mass Market EVs: Whereas the early days of the EV market were defined by premium segment vehicles, the trend has shifted to the mass market segment where franchise EV sales rose 58% in 2024, reaching a total of 376,000 units.
- New York, Florida, Colorado Emerge as New EV Hotspots: California has been the focal point for EV adoption and remains the state with the highest concentration of EV ownership, EV sales in the state declined 250 units in 2024. Meanwhile, among the states with the fastest-growing rates of EV adoption, New York saw an increase of 23,000 EV sales in 2024, followed by Florida (22,400), Colorado (14,600), Michigan (10,700) and Texas (8,400).
Executive Summary
Amid a flurry of speculation about how Trump administration policies on everything from EV incentives and tariffs on foreign imports to federal emissions and mileage standards will affect the future of EV adoption, JD Power has focused its attention on the data, reassessing the major trends in EV adoption for the past four years, and analyzing current government policies and manufacturer strategies to get the most accurate reading possible on consumer sentiment heading into 2025. Though many variables are still at play, which could create potential headwinds and tailwinds to EV adoption, JD Power is projecting that 2025 will be a reset year for EV adoption, in which total retail share will hold at 9.1% as manufacturers and consumers adjust to new market dynamics.
This E-Vision Intelligence Report dives into key data points trending in each monthly JD Power EV Index update, along with other data points gathered from JD Power studies and pulse surveys, to offer a data-driven consumer perspective on the public charging customer experience.
A Reset Year for EV Adoption
The Trump administration has indicated that it intends to end the $7,500 federal Clean Vehicle Tax Credit as part of its plan to overhaul the U.S. government. Based on JD Power research, these federal tax credits have played a major role in incentivizing current EV owners to purchase or lease an EV. Similarly, uncertainty concerning the future of tariffs placed on imported products and continued consumer frustration with public charging have created some significant headwinds to growth in EV adoption.
Based on these trends, JD Power projects the pace of EV retail share growth to level off in 2025, reaching a total of 9.1% of the total automobile marketplace, or a total of 1.2 million vehicles sold. Longer term, the forecast calls for the EV market to reach 26% retail share by 2030, which is approximately half of the market share the Biden administration targeted in its climate agenda.
Mass Market EV Adoption in the Spotlight
One major trend that took root in 2024 and will play a significant role in determining the future of EV market growth has been the expansion of the mass market segment. In 2021, mainstream franchise EV sales accounted for just 0.8% of total EV market share. In 2024, that number rose to 2.9%, as EVs from the likes of Chevrolet, Ford, Honda, Hyundai and Kia surged in popularity. A total of 376,000 units were sold in the mass market EV segment in 2024, and that trend appears to be holding steady as more mainstream EVs come to market.
This growth in the mass market segment—along with federal and state incentives—has also helped make EVs cheaper than comparable gas-powered vehicles. On average, at the end of 2024, the average cost of a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) was $44,400, which is $1,000 less than a comparable gas-powered vehicle, inclusive of hybrids and plugin hybrids. While that balance may change if federal tax incentives are removed, the trend toward EVs being a lower cost option has correlated with increases in sales, which will be an important factor for manufacturers to consider as they confront the current marketplace.
Look Beyond California
California has been the largest consumer market for EVs and, according to JD Power forecasts, the state is expected to reach 84% retail share by 2035. However, in 2024, the total number of EVs sold in California declined slightly, while states like New York, Florida and Colorado have become new growth hot spots. The total number of EV sales in New York rose 23,000, followed by Florida (22,400), Colorado (14,600), Michigan (10,700) and Texas (8,400).
Achieving more even growth rates across the country—along with charging infrastructure to support that growth—will be key to the future of the EV market.
Methodology
This JD Power E-Vision Intelligence Report is based on data and insights from the JD Power EV Index, the JD Power EV Retail Share Forecast, the JD Power 2024 U.S. Electric Vehicle Experience (EVX) Ownership Study, the JD Power 2023 U.S. Electric Vehicle Experience (EVX) Public Charging Study and the JD Power U.S. Electric Vehicle Consideration (EVC) Study. The JD Power EV Index is an analytics tool to benchmark the growing EV market in the United States. It tracks millions of data points aggregated into six categories—interest, availability, adoption, affordability, infrastructure and experience—to evaluate the progress to parity of EVs with gas-powered vehicles in the U.S. Each month, the JD Power electric vehicle practice will analyze these data points, and others to spotlight emerging trends and important shifts in consumer sentiment that are helping to define the fast-moving EV marketplace.
Find out More
This report was authored by Elizabeth Krear, vice president, electric vehicle practice, and Brent Gruber, executive director, electric vehicle practice. The JD Power E-Vision initiative is a company-wide program focused on maximizing JD Power industry-leading EV data, analytics, insights and solutions. Please contact us at the numbers below to connect with the authors or to learn more about the underlying research.
Media Contacts
Shane Smith; East Coast; 424-903-3665; [email protected]
Geno Effler, JD Power; West Coast; 714-621-6224; [email protected]