Progressive’s race to #1 in personal lines auto

Progressive’s race to #1 in personal lines auto

Progressive’s personal lines posted a strong combined ratio of 87.5 in 2025 amid a softening market and following years of rate hikes and profitability challenges across the insurance industry. Progressive has become a market leader in personal lines auto due in part to Progressive’s strong underwriting discipline and pricing sophistication. 

In the most recent JD Power quarterly Insurance Shopping LIST report, which tracks customer shopping, loyalty, and attrition among the nation’s leading personal lines insurance providers, an interesting trend has emerged for Progressive. 

According to LIST, Progressive had the strongest growth in auto policies in 2025—their new business rates outpaced State Farm and GEICO. At the same time, Progressive also had the highest rate of churn—auto insurance customers leaving them—in 2025; the report also noted shopping rates were on the rise among Progressive’s auto insurance customers in Q4 2025, likely due to increased competition in the market. The latest report can be found here. 

What happens when a company leads in both acquiring (inflow) and losing (outflow) customers? The answer depends on the company. The story is nuanced for Progressive, so uncovering who these customers are and where they are going is key to understanding these trends. 
 

 

Progressive Defector (Outflow) Profile: Who are the customers leaving Progressive?

An above average number of customers with less favorable credit history (fair and poor credit) defected from Progressive in 2025. The company also lost an above average number of “Dianes” (customers with auto and renters) (53%), yet the company seemed to back-fill the loss with new Dianes (55%). 

 

Customer Segment Definitions

• Sam: Has an auto policy but does not rent or own his home, he lives with relatives or has some other living situation
• Diane: Has an auto policy and rents her home
• The Wrights: Own their home but don’t bundle their home and auto policy
• The Robinsons: Own their home and bundle their home and auto policy together

 

A notable proportion of Progressive’s defectors were from Texas, Florida, and California, due in part to increased competition paired with too high premiums and premium hikes over the years in those markets. 

 

Among Progressive’s Florida defectors, an above average number cited either their rates were too high or rate recently increased (50% in Florida vs. 39% nationally for Progressive). Notably, GEICO is capturing a significant proportion of Progressive’s Florida defectors (47%).

Progressive New Customer (Inflow) Profile: Who are the customers coming to Progressive? 

Progressive gained a notable proportion of Dianes (auto and renters) in 2025. Despite its strategy to gain more Robinsons (auto and homeowners), the proportion of Robinsons gained by Progressive (13%) lagged the industry (23%) in 2025. According to the carrier’s financial reports, this is partially due to initiatives to improve profitability. The initiatives, which included restricting new homeowner applications, had an adverse impact on new business growth within this segment.  

 

Customer Segment Definitions

•  Sam: Has an auto policy but does not rent or own his home, he lives with relatives or has some other living situation
• Diane: Has an auto policy and rents her home
• The Wrights: Own their home but don’t bundle their home and auto policy
• The Robinsons: Own their home and bundle their home and auto 

 

Texas and Florida also became states in which Progressive gained a notable number of new customers in 2025. Progressive became more price competitive in Florida after filing for rate reductions so it’s not surprising that 35% of Progressive’s new customers in Florida indicated they were shopping due to their rate being too high with their former carrier (versus 28% nationwide for Progressive).

 

Progressive’s Inflow/Outflow 

The competitive landscape within acquiring and losing customers shows that Progressive lost more defectors to GEICO and State Farm than it gained from each of these companies.  The General received an outsized number of Progressive’s defectors overall, and an even greater number of Progressive defectors in the poor or fair credit history tiers. 

The LIST data shows Progressive acquired slightly more customers from USAA and Liberty Mutual than it lost to these brands.