Segment: Aftermarket

Used-car market continues to struggle in Poland

While the used-car market in Poland faces continued supply pressures, the new-car market has remained stable so far in 2025. Marcin Kardas, head of valuations at Eurotax Poland, analyses the figures with Autovista24 web editor James Roberts.

So far in 2025, Poland’s used-vehicle market has seen struggles spanning both passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs). A large supply of used models and significant discounting continues to put pressure on market values.

In the used-car sector, hybrid vehicles have seen the strongest residual values (RVs), whilst battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) saw the biggest declines.

In contrast, Poland’s new-car market has remained stable over the first three months of the year. By the end of March, 138,696 units were registered in the country, an increase of 2.5% from 2024, according to data from industry authority PZPM.

Notably, the Polish new-car market has seen an increase in Chinese brands debuting. As well as this, the sector has not been adversely impacted by looming EU emissions regulations. However, potential shifts in policy, coupled with recently announced US tariffs, could cause disruption as the year progresses.

Continued used-car struggles

The used-car market continues to see a decline in values that follow a longer trend. Discounts on new prices, plus a large supply of used vehicles, continues to put pressure on market values. Coupled with this, the beginning of the year usually signals a period of high volatility.

The steady decline of values in Poland, which has continued since the beginning of 2024, is one of the higher among the largest markets in Europe. Demand for used cars is currently limited.

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Within the Polish used-car market, vehicles aged between 31 and 90 months saw the largest drops in value. However, the prices of the youngest cars, limited in availability due to the post-COVID-19 supply constraints, and the oldest, most affordable cars on the market, are gradually stabilising.

Hybrid vehicles emerged as the most resilient used powertrain, losing the least value. Alternatively BEVs saw the greatest rate of depreciation. This continues a trend witnessed throughout 2024.

It is notable that the gap between the asking price and the final sale price is particularly wide for BEVs. This is largely due to low demand and a widespread lack of confidence in these vehicles on the used-car market. As a result, the resale value of BEVs remains uncompetitive compared to internal combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles, which in turn hampers the growth of BEV sales.

Historically, BEVs tend to depreciate more quickly than their ICE counterparts. While the limited availability and small sample size contribute to high variability in the data, the trend of higher depreciation is clearly visible in listings.

Although manufacturers are pushed to produce and sell BEVs due to Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) regulations, the used car market has yet to fully embrace this powertrain, further reinforcing their low RVs.

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New-car market stable for now

For the time being, the Polish new-car market has not seen any significant impact from the CAFÉ standard. This EU-enforced regulation sets a CO2 emissions to a limit of 93.6g/km across a carmaker’s fleet. Other European markets, such as Hungary, are anticipating price rises later in 2025 as a result.

ICE-powered cars remain available without restrictions in Poland. With the recently-announced transitional three-year period to meet the emission targets, importers and dealers will gain time to phase in BEVs.

Meanwhile, more Chinese brands continue to appear in the Polish new-car market. These vehicles cover most segments, spanning a variety of powertrains including ICE. Adoption of Chinese models has been unexpectedly strong so far, especially among private users.

This trend could be attributed to published price lists not showing the effects of the protective duties introduced last year, making these vehicles attractive to consumers. Fleets are only just beginning to show interest in these new Chinese brands.

One unknown that could impact the market is the implementation of US tariffs. With production spread globally, this could pose a problem for European manufacturers. In Poland, potential exposure to increased logistical costs and reduced sales could affect new vehicle sales.

Used van market under pressure

New van registrations in the Polish market grew in the first quarter of 2025. This amounted to 16,127 units, a minimal increase of 1% year-on-year, according to data from PZPM.

In contrast to the relative stability in the new van market, used vans are currently selling at a slow pace. At the beginning of the year, an increased decline in value can be observed in every segment of the market, from light to heavy vehicles.

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Models older than five years are also falling in value. This is indicative of a growing general problem with demand for close transportation and the adverse economic climate. Compared to the largest markets in Europe, Poland currently has the largest decline in the value of vans.

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Poland’s truck crisis continues

The truck market continues to experience significant problems, with marked decline entering a third year. The sector is suffering from a widespread lack of interest in used vehicles, compounded by an elevated quarterly decline in the value of used trucks.

An increased interest in eight-to 10-year-old tractors from Arabic countries has had little positive effect on the wider market picture.

However, this is a normal situation at the beginning of the year. It is therefore difficult to judge whether this marks the beginning of a greater depreciation in the following months motivated by minimal demand.

The market is currently facing a shortage of attractive used vehicles. However it is important to recognise that trucks purchased during the early phase of the pandemic, when new vehicle sales were heavily restricted, are only now beginning to re-enter circulation.

This creates a unique dynamic of subdued demand on one side, and a limited supply of quality used stock on the other. The key to reversing this trend likely lies in an economic recovery in Germany, Poland’s primary export destination, and a bellwether for regional transport demand.

Meanwhile, distribution trucks have seen a sharp and sustained drop in value. New vehicle sales data offers limited insights. This is due to the segment’s relatively small share in overall truck sales. However, the steep depreciation of used vehicles strongly suggests a broader slowdown in local transport activity.

Sales of new trucks are following the same trend. From the beginning of 2025 to the end of February, only 4,461 trucks were registered in Poland, a year-on-year drop of as much as 15.9%. This is comparative to a poor result at the start of 2024.

Monthly Market Update: Used-car sales pick up speed in March

Used-car markets across Europe saw sales pick up speed from February to March. But did all powertrains benefit from this trend? Tom Geggus, Autovista24 editor, examines the data with Autovista Group experts.

On average, two-to-four-year-old cars were sold more quickly in March 2025 than in February. Austria saw one of the greatest improvements, with 6.3 stock days saved between the two months.

The UK, Spain and Switzerland were not far behind, narrowing the gap by 5.6, 4.9 and 4.8 days on average respectively. Stock days in Germany shrank by 3.5 days, while Italy only managed to shave off 0.4 days. The time needed to sell a used car in France did increase, but only by 0.2 days on average.

Faster used-car sales

However, not all powertrains saw the same speedy sales performance across these markets. In Austria, France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) took the longest time to sell.

The powertrain continues to struggle across many markets. Rapid technological development means used BEVs are ageing more quickly as consumers compare their capabilities with newer, more advanced models.

A lack of charging infrastructure development and deployment is also holding potential buyers back. For many, the shorter refuelling time of an internal-combustion engine (ICE) still appears more convenient.

The UK was the major exception to this trend, where BEVs were the fastest-selling powertrain. With the technology recording comparatively lower levels of value retention, some buyers were looking to snap up a deal.

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Meanwhile, hybrid technology, including full (HEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), recorded the fastest selling times across many markets. These powertrains were snapped up in France, Germany, Italy and Spain during March.

The technology offers a bridge for many buyers. The powertrain provides faster ICE refuelling and improved fuel economy thanks to the assistance of electric motors. This is leading to demand on the used-car market with shorter selling times.

Stock days fall in Austria

Following a significant increase in February, the sales-volume index (SVI) in Austria decreased slightly in March. The number of observed sales decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous month. This was a year-on-year decline of 9.5%.

Meanwhile, the active-market volume index (AMVI) of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars increased slightly in March by 1.4%. However, the supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket was down by 5.8% compared to the previous year.

‘At 68.6 days, the average amount of time needed to sell a used car decreased significantly in March,’ commented Robert Madas, Autovista Group’s regional head of valuations. ‘This was around six days faster than in February.’

Diesel vehicles continued to be the fastest-selling powertrain, averaging 64.7 days last month. This was followed by HEV at 68 days, petrol vehicles at 70.1 days and PHEVs at 71.6 days. BEVs took the longest amount of time to sell at 74.6 days.

Residual values (RVs) of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km presented as a percentage of the original list price (%RV), decreased to 48.3% on average in March. This was a 0.5 percentage point (pp) decrease compared to February but a 3.5pp fall year-on-year.

HEVs retained the greatest amount of trade value in January at 52.5%, followed by petrol cars at 50%. Then came diesel models with 47.9% and PHEVs with 46.8%. BEVs again retained the lowest amount of value at 44.1%. However, this was a slight improvement compared to the previous months.

‘Thanks to weakening demand and unwavering supply, values are forecast to fall in the coming years. However, this decline will be at a slower pace,’ Madas added. ‘By the end of 2025, %RVs are expected to decrease by 0.9%. In 2026, a slight year-on-year drop of 0.7% is expected.’

France sees RV stability

‘RVs remained stable in France during March,’ outlined Ludovic Percier, Autovista Group’s senior RV analyst for France. ‘Some powertrains saw a slight increase compared with February, such as diesel and PHEVs. Overall, values remained stable compared with December 2024.’

%RVs also increased very slightly for petrol cars. This counterbalanced the drop recorded in February. Meanwhile, list prices and absolute RVs increased marginally. The used petrol vehicle market was quite stable until December last year. However, values remained strong overall.

Diesel cars continued to see their value-retention rates increase. This contrasts with a negative trend recorded at the end of 2024. There is still demand for the fuel type on the used-car market. However, there are smaller volumes and model ranges on offer compared to previous years. Alongside HEVs, diesel cars are among the fastest-selling powertrains, evidencing how much demand they are in.

The absolute value of HEVs was stable in March after values dropped in the last couple of months. However, the technology is still the fastest selling. HEVs are still appreciated in France, so %RVs remained roughly stable overall.

PHEVs were still the second slowest-selling powertrain in France during March as oversupply continued. However, the introduction of newer, more premium models with better electric ranges have helped keep RVs roughly stable.

While values did increase compared with January and February, figures only returned to the levels recorded at the end of last year. List prices on the market remain high, explaining the powertrain’s greater value loss.

BEVs underperform

All-electric vehicles also struggled, seeing fewer vehicles sold compared to February. ‘BEVs not only spent the longest amount of time in stock but also recorded the lowest RVs. Values fell considerably in previous months, then January and February saw marginal increases, but March was stable overall,’ Percier outlined.

BEVs appear to be stagnating, as brands are pushed by governments to sell more new all-electric models. This means the used-BEV market is becoming crowded while also having too few buyers.

BEV purchase incentives became dependent on lifetime carbon emissions at the end of 2023. This made some brands and models ineligible. So, used models remained expensive, causing prices to drop. Where demand does not meet supply, the market sees lower values and prices.

Weak demand in Germany

Following a significant increase in February, Germany’s SVI showed a steep decrease in March. Compared to the previous month, this metric was down 14.1%. Compared with March 2023, the indicator dropped by 28.8% year-on-year.

The AMVI for two-to-four-year-old passenger cars showed a slight increase of 2.4%. However, the supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket dropped by 16.9% compared to 12 months ago.

The average number of days needed to sell a used car decreased to 60.6 days in March. PHEVs sold the fastest at 54.7 days, followed by diesel cars at 56.7 days. Then came BEVs at 57.7 days, petrol cars after 64.8 days and HEVs at 65.5 days.

%RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km remained stable in March. On average, models held 47.6% of their value in the month. HEVs led the market with a %RV of 49.4%. This was followed by petrol cars at 49.3%, diesel cars at 48.5%, and PHEVs at 43.6%. Once again, BEVs retained the lowest level of value at 37.6%, but on a slightly improving trend compared to the previous month.

‘Although RVs have stabilised recently, demand remains weak,’ Madas explained. ‘Therefore, values can be expected to come under more pressure. In 2025, %RVs are forecast to decrease, down 2.4% when compared with December 2024. Pressure will probably ease in 2025, and RVs will show a declining trend of 1.4%.’

Cloudy forecast for Italy

‘The sharp RV decline continued in Italy during March. %RVs fell to 48.8% from 49.6% in February and 53.6% in March 2024. As this decline shows no sign of slowing, the regional forecast for 2025 has been revised downwards,’ said Marco Pasquetti, Autovista Group’s head of valuations for Italy.

The year is now expected to end with a 6.4% year-on-year drop in values. The forecast for 2026 has also been revised slightly. However, these drops are expected to be comparatively smaller.

Unexpectedly, HEVs saw the greatest drop in %RVs compared to February, from 53.3% to 51.8%. However, this figure should be considered within the context of the market’s overall downward trend.

Interest in the powertrain remains high, as confirmed by the SVI, which grew by 19.5% compared to February. The average number of days needed to sell a HEV fell by 3.9 days, better than the market average. Overall, the SVI was still up in Italy month on month. However, levels were still down compared to March 2024.

‘The two fastest-selling used models in Italy last month were both from Dacia. The Dacia Sandero took an average of just 19.2 days to sell, while the Dacia Duster sold in 26.5 days. The liquid petroleum gas (LPG) versions of these models sold particularly quickly,’ highlighted Pasquetti.

‘Overall, this fuel type continues to see improved sales rates, with the SVI increasing 12.2% year on year. At 41.6 days, LPG models also sold far faster than the market average of 64.6 days,’ Pasquetti added.

Younger used-car supply in Spain

Spain saw new-car sales continue to grow in the first quarter of 2025, across all channels. Registrations increased by 11% year on year in February.

However, a large part of this growth resulted from the special Reinicia Auto+ plan. This helps people affected by the DANA floods, especially those in the east of the country. Removing these sales from the overall figures would lower the growth rate from 11% to 5.8%.

‘Alongside this new-car market boost, Spain has also seen an increasing number of electric vehicle (EV) sales. Combined BEV and PHEV registrations climbed by 39% year on year,’ commented Ana Azofra, Autovista Group’s head of valuations and insights, Spain.

This growth can be expected to level off in the coming months. This is because it was the result of brands and dealers making concerted efforts to sell these powertrains at the end of 2024.

Spain’s used-car market is also experiencing a period of growth. The SVI in the country increased by 6.1% month on month. Promisingly, the market is seeing an increasing supply of younger vehicles. This is primarily due to the entry of models from the rental sector.

In terms of used-car transaction prices, Spain continues to show great resilience. Values have been very stable, and all powertrains have seen stock days improve month on month. The DS7 Crossback, the Toyota CH-R and the Volkswagen Polo recorded the fastest turnover rates in March.

In March, the average value of a three-year-old car at 60,000 km was €19,864. This was 1.4% higher than in March 2024.

No supply let-up in Switzerland

Following a significant increase in February, the SVI decreased in Switzerland during March. The number of observed sales decreased by 3.2% compared to the previous month. Year-on-year, the SVI was almost stable, falling by only 0.1%.

Meanwhile, the AMVI of two-to-four-year-old passenger cars increased by 3% month on month. Despite this, the supply volume of passenger cars in this age bracket slumped by 7.4% compared to the previous year.

‘Influenced by constant supply, RVs of 36-month-old cars at 60,000km dropped in March,’ outlined Madas. ‘%RVs fell to 44.1% in March from 44.6% in February. Yet, the year-on-year drop was more severe, down 3.5pp from the values recorded 12 months ago.’

HEVs retained the most value in January by far at 49.8%. Then came petrol cars at 45.6%, diesel models at 42.6% and PHEVs at 41.5%. BEVs were once again the worst-performing powertrain, retaining only 38.7% of their original list price after three years and 60,000km.

March saw two-to-four-year-old passenger cars sell more quickly than in February. Used vehicles spent 77.3 days in stock on average.

Diesel cars sold fastest at 69.9 days, followed by HEVs at 71.9 and petrol models at 77.7 days. PHEVs took 81.3 days, showing a significant year-on-year decrease of 14 days. Meanwhile, BEVs needed the most time to sell at 84.9 days on average. However, reflected an improvement on the previous month when the time to sell was around 10 days longer.

‘A trend of relatively stable supply and low demand will continue as various uncertainties shroud 2025,’ Madas added. Therefore, %RVs are expected to decrease in the coming years, but at a slower pace. By the end of 2025, %RVs are expected to decrease by 3%. In 2026, a slight year-on-year drop of 1.5% is expected.’

Used-car supply slows in UK

On average, it took a UK dealer 5.6 fewer days to sell a used car in March than in February. According to March’s monthly dashboard, two-to-four-year-old cars sold in 40.7 days on average. This is a significant improvement from last month and aligns with last year’s performance.

BEVs remained the fastest-selling powertrain at just 35.8 days, a reduction of 2.4 days compared to last month. At 44.7 days, diesel models were the slowest to be retailed by dealers. This was despite their days-to-sell figure falling by 3.9 days month on month.

‘The AMVI revealed the volume of advertised models fell by 7.5% compared to February. This is likely a result of less used-car supply in the run-up to March’s plate change,’ commented Jayson Whittington, Autovista Group’s regional head of valuations, UK.

‘It appears less choice contributed to a fall in the rate of sales. The SVI showed a reduction of 3.1% compared with February. Compared to last year, the market generated 18.2% fewer used-car sales,’ he said.

BEVs continue to excel in the UK. The SVI increased by 18.1% for the powertrain compared to last month and 38.1% from last year. The AMVI shows a modest 4.6% growth in advertised BEVs. But compared to this time last year, there was an increase of 56.8%.

The average %RV of a BEV continues to trail the overall average of 51.3% significantly. The average BEV retained 39% at three years of age. However, when compared in absolute terms, there was only a monetary difference of £148 (€177).

European used-car markets end 2024 on a high

Europe’s big five used-car markets ended 2024 with growth across the year. While the fourth quarter results for four markets remained strong, one country saw a worrying trend develop. Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the data.

The strength in these European used-car markets is in stark contrast to the performance of the new-car sector. Only two markets saw growth in this area during 2024. It appears drivers are continuing to turn to older models as supply increases.

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With new-car markets struggling, supply into the used-car sector could be limited. Additionally, there were fewer cars sold between 2020 and 2022, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and supply-chain crisis. This means there may be fewer models currently available.

Used cars falter in France

In France, the used-car market saw a slight decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. With 1.35 million transactions, figures were down by 0.3%, according to industry association AAA Data.

While October saw a 3.5% improvement with 489,253 transactions, figures in November declined by 2% to 432,542 sales. This was followed by a 2.8% drop in December as 426,485 cars changed hands, according to Autovista24 calculations. This made the three-month period the worst of the year for the country.

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The result meant the French used-car market ended 2024 up by 3%, thanks to 5.35 million sales. The third quarter of the year proved to be the most successful for the country, with a 6.3% increase in transactions. This helped the figures from the second half of 2024 rise 2.8% compared to the same period in 2023.

Yet, this 3% growth was the smallest of the big five European markets. While the country’s new-car figures struggled throughout 2024, the used-car sector bounced back, following a difficult 2023. The French automotive sector will be hoping that 2025 can bring stability to both markets.

BEV used-car building

While registrations of new battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) fell 2.6% in France last year, transactions of used BEVs soared. Vehicles adhering to the country’s ‘Crit’Air 0’ sticker, made up of zero-emission models, saw sales rise 54% across the year. This gave the category a 2.5% market share.

This improvement could continue. Social leasing potentially being extended to used BEVs and ‘Crit’Air 3’ models could be banned from certain city centres. Drivers may therefore turn to the technology, finding it financially and environmentally beneficial for daily use.

In 2024, it was models adhering to the ‘Crit’Air 1’ sticker that led the used-car market in France. This covers petrol cars registered since 2011. The segment saw transactions improve 18% over the year, with a share of 36%.

Next came the ‘Crit’Air 2’ models, covering petrol from 2006 to 2010, and diesel from 2011, with a 34% share. However, sales of these vehicles declined by 1% in the year.

‘Crit’Air 3’ models, made up of petrol cars registered from 1997 to 2005, and diesel from 2006 to 2010, represented 19% of transactions. This was, however, down by 8% year on year.

The results meant the average age of a passenger car in the French car parc increased to 12 years in 2024. With the turbulence in the new-car market, drivers are turning towards older models, keeping them in circulation for longer.

Used car gains in Germany

Germany’s used-car market also saw growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. While the country’s new-car market struggled, with a 0.7% decline between October and December, transactions of used cars improved by 5%. This means that 1.55 million sales took place, according to data from the KBA.

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October was the strongest month of the period, with transactions improving by 10.9% to 574,700 units. November saw stability, with 532,667 sales equating to a 0.3% improvement. December’s figures were up 3.5%, with 446,675 cars changing hands.

The second half of the year saw a 6.3% improvement overall, following an 8.6% rise in the first six months of 2024. This meant that across the full year, the German used-car market increased by 7.4%, with almost 6.48 million transactions.

Only March and June saw sales fall, each recording a 1.5% decline. The best month for growth was April, with figures bouncing back after the early Easter, and transactions rising 27.5%.

The results are in stark contrast to the country’s new-car market, which declined 1% in 2024. The fourth quarter of the year saw registrations fall 0.7%, while figures in the last half of the year declined 7%.

Spain soars ahead

Spain’s used-car market met its forecast in 2024, as the fourth quarter provided the best growth of the year. According to figures provided by industry body GANVAM, and analysed by Autovista24, Spanish transactions rose 12.3% between October and December.

In total 558,445 units changed hands. October was the best month of the quarter, with 201,460 units producing an 18.6% improvement. This was followed by a 12.7% rise in November, with 189,290 units sold. Then came a 6.1% rise in December, as 197,695 units changed hands.

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The country recorded an overall improvement in 2024 of 9.6%, with 2.07 million transactions. Like Germany, the market only recorded two drops in the year. March saw figures fall by 10.9%, and June registering a 5.5% decline.

According to GANVAM, the country’s used-car market was led by diesel powertrains. The fuel type captured 52.5% of sales, with petrol the second most popular powertrain, representing 37% of transactions.

Meanwhile, BEVs took a 0.9% market share, with sales increasing 54.7% in the year.  Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), which accounted for 0.9% of 2024’s total, grew by 82.4% by the end of the year.

The average age of used cars sold in Spain in 2024 was 11.2 years, remaining stable on 2023. GANVAM suggests this highlights the economic difficulties that the average citizen has in accessing efficient mobility solutions.

The body is advocating for young used vehicles to be included in incentive plans,  guaranteeing affordable zero and low-emission mobility.

UK remains positive

Across the last three months of last year, the UK used-car market grew 4%, according to data from the SMMT. October recorded a 6.9% rise with 669,319 transactions, while November saw figures improve by 3.6% with 607,483 sales.

However, there was a slowdown in December, with transactions up just 0.6% as 469,249 cars changed hands. In total, there were almost 1.75 million sales in the three-month period.

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The fourth quarter was the weakest of the year. However, this is a traditional slow point in the country’s market. The last six months of 2024 saw growth of 4.2%.

The results meant the UK used-car sector ended 2024 up by 5.5%, as 7.64 million models changed hands. The country was the only one of Europe’s big five to see growth in each month of the year.

BEV demand rises

Demand for used BEVs rose 57.4% last year, achieving a record 188,382 units. This gave the technology its highest-ever used-car market share, of 2.5%. This was up from 1.6% in 2024 and is 13 times higher than the figure recorded in 2019.

The used-BEV market may grow even quicker in 2025 with Vehicle Excise Duty being added to new models. Many models may also be affected by the Expensive Car Supplement (ECS). This will increase ownership costs for the first six years of a vehicle’s use. So, drivers who want a BEV will turn to older models, which are exempt from the ECS.

Sales of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) also grew, improving by 32.2% with 92,120 units. Meanwhile, full hybrids (HEVs) surged by 39.3%, reaching 306,114 units. Combined, the number of used electrified vehicles changing hands increased by 43.6% on 2023. More than half a million of these models accounted for 7.7% of sales.

Meanwhile, petrol and diesel cars accounted for 92.1% of all used car transactions, down slightly from 94.4% last year. Petrol remained dominant, up 7% to represent 57.1% of the market. Diesel transactions dropped by 2.7%, accounting for 35% of sales.

Increases in Italy

Italy’s used-car market also achieved a successful finish in 2024, with an 8.1% improvement in the fourth quarter. This is according to the latest data from industry body ANFIA. Out of the big five, the three-month period was second only to Spain in terms of growth, with a total of just over 1.48 million transactions.

October was the strongest month in the period, with a 10.5% improvement, thanks to 543,265 sales. November saw figures struggle, albeit recording growth of 0.6% with 469,313 transactions. However, the year ended strongly, with 471,225 cars changing hands in December, up 13.7%.

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This performance helped Italy to an 8.1% rise in used-car transactions across the year. A total of almost 5.47 million sales were recorded in the country. Like Spain and Germany, the market saw only two months of declines in the year, with March down 2%, and August dropping 1.9%.

This performance is again in contrast to the country’s new-car market, which struggled towards the end of 2024. A run of five consecutive declines meant registrations finished 0.5% down year on year.

The figures across each of the big five markets suggest that the used-car sector is more robust than that of new cars. Growth in transactions from France, Germany, Spain, the UK and Italy all outpaced new-car registrations.

Supply into these channels is likely to increase thanks to the new-car recovery of late 2022 and 2023, meaning further growth could be expected this year.

Autovista Group’s 2025 residual value outlook

After a tumultuous 2024, what will happen to automotive residual values (RVs) in Europe this year? In a new webinar, Autovista Group experts outline their outlook for 2025 with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

How did Europe’s used-car market conclude 2024, and what trends were established across the 12 months? Will values follow a similar course in 2025? What will this mean for certain segments, brands and powertrains, such as battery-electric vehicles (BEVs)?

A panel of Autovista Group experts set out to answer these questions in a new webinar. This included Autovista Group’s chief economist Dr Christof Engelskirchen, director of research and innovation, Dr Anne Lange, regional head of valuations for Southwest Europe and Poland, Ana Azofra, and regional head of valuations of DACH and CEE regions, Robert Madas.

The current market

Engelskirchen outlined four key factors that defined Europe’s used-car market in 2024. Firstly, many new-car markets grew across the region last year. Secondly, this volume is entering the market via short-cycle channels, which is worse for the used-car market.

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Third, while consumer confidence remains at a similar level to 2023, it remains below levels recorded in 2019. Finally, there has been subdued economic growth across many European economies.

These wider market trends saw RVs continue to fall in 2024. ‘This does not mean that residual values are below pre-pandemic levels. We are still in a situation where used cars sell at higher prices than in 2019,’ Engelskirchen explained.

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Azofra pointed out that residual values were hugely inflated between 2021 and 2022. Then, new-car availability improved in 2023, meaning greater stabilisation and used-car stock levels.

‘Since 2023, prices have started to readjust as the balance between supply and demand has improved,’ she said. ‘On average, we are still above pre-pandemic transaction prices, and we see all these movements as part of a market normalisation process.’

The 2025 outlook

Autovista Group expects RVs of three-year-old cars at 60,000km to fall by 2.5% on average across observed European markets. Azofra pointed out that this ranges from a 0.7% year-on-year drop in the Netherlands to a 4% fall in Belgium.

‘Several factors will influence residual values and explain this negative outlook. On the one hand, the depreciation of BEVs and then of course the impact of CAFE regulation,’ she explained. On the other hand, the macroeconomic conditions and price pressure from new competitors will also play a role,’ she outlined.

This decline is expected to ease in 2026. Countries like Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands are even forecast to record positive figures next year. In 2027, European RVs are expected to decline by around 1% on average.

Powertrain outlook

Madas confirmed that BEV RVs experienced a difficult 2024, particularly in countries like Italy and France. Austria, Switzerland and Germany were also affected. Meanwhile, Spain and the UK saw slightly more stability.

This overall negative trend is expected to continue across Europe into 2025. The outlook for 2026 is similar, only with slightly smaller adjustments. So, what is the reason for this?

Madas explained that CO2 targets are putting pressure on OEMs as they look to avoid penalties. This prompts discounting on the new-car market, which puts pressure on RVs. This trend has already been observed in some European countries.

‘Another interesting effect comes from the supply side,’ he noted. ‘We have talked about the supply being quite low compared to previous years, but for BEVs, the supply actually increased in recent years.’

In 2021 and 2022, BEVs took a greater share of European new-car markets. These models are now entering the used-car market. This increased supply has been met with weak demand.

In comparison, internal-combustion engine (ICE) powered models recorded far more stable RVs on average. However, they did still see a slightly negative decline across 2024. ‘ICE models generally perform better when it comes to RVs for three-year-old vehicles or even older vehicles,’ Madas explained.

Indicators versus outlook

So, how does Autovista Group track the market’s behaviour when constructing these outlooks? Lange revealed market observation data, covering the age, stock days and price changes of vehicles sold by dealerships. These indicators can be used as early warning signs for future trends.

‘The average car age has risen over time,’ Lange stated. ‘That goes very much in line with what Anna and Robert have been saying about supply shortage. There have not been very many young cars coming into the market over the last years.’

The BEVs on offer have also been far younger than the petrol and diesel-powered models. However, the amount of time all-electric vehicles spent in stock has been climbing as the used-car market saw the supply of this powertrain increase.

Lange also explored the price change count, which notes how often a price needs to be adjusted before a sale is achieved.

‘There was quite a lot of price adjustment for battery-electric vehicles over the last two years,’ she highlighted. This means it is much more difficult for BEVs to be sold compared to ICE models. Combining stock days and price changes, it becomes clear how much work is needed to sell these models.

During the webinar, the panel also discussed Spain’s exceptional automotive performance and the impact of weaker registration years.

Azofra considered the complexity of BEV forecasting, Madas explored the performance of small cars, and Engelskirchen analysed the impact of new-brand strategies. These insights, as well as a question-and-answer session, are available in the webinar recording.

Enjoyed Autovista Group’s 2025 residual value outlook? Then sign up for the next webinar: Transition to EVs – Has Europe already peaked? It will take place on 12 March 2025 at 9.30am GMT / 10.30am CET. Find out more and register for your place today.

What happens to vehicle prices at different mileage thresholds?

Besides age, mileage is the most important driver of used-vehicle prices. But what happens at the 100,000km threshold? Dr Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist of Autovista Group (part of J.D. Power), explores the psychological barrier of accumulated mileage.

Deciding to buy a used vehicle triggers a significant amount of research. There is the inherent challenge of assessing a vehicle’s true quality in relation to the price suggested by the seller. This may be overcome to some degree by used-vehicle programmes and warranties, which provide a security blanket for the buyer.

Another challenge is that buyers may not find a used vehicle which meets their desired specifications. Even if they do, there is the potential for some buyers to look at alternatives, willing to compromise if the price is right. A typical option is expanding a search to include older models and those with higher mileages.

Matching age and mileage

Buyers look to balance age and mileage when purchasing a used vehicle. This means sorting models into usage categories:

  • One age-mileage cluster considered when buying a used vehicle is ‘nearly new’. This can include demonstration vehicles, usually with very low mileages.
  • A second category often taken into account is ‘young used vehicles’. These models are often off-rental, or driven as manufacturer-registered company vehicles, possibly around one to two years old.
  • A third and typical bracket covers vehicles ‘between three and four years of age’, driven under leasing or subscription contracts.
  • Last but not least, ‘older used vehicles’ are at least five years old and have passed through multiple sets of hands. If these vehicles only had one previous owner, they were usually privately acquired when new.

Buyers assess a used vehicle by comparing these age clusters with expected patterns of usage. Mileage is an important indicator for this assessment. A remarkably low mileage for an older age cluster can be suspicious and may point to an under-used engine. If the mileage is too high for the age cluster, this can point to an exhausted vehicle.

These simple rules of thumb make sense from a technical perspective, particularly when applied to internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles, rather than electric vehicles. Buyers might also assume that higher mileages are far less concerning for diesel engines than for ones powered by petrol.

Psychological mileage barriers

Autovista Group analysis reveals how prices of used vehicles, including passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, develop from one mileage cluster to the next. With last-observed prices spread over 10,000km intervals, values decline by 5% on average with each advancing mileage cluster. Collected data spans Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy Portugal, and Spain.

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Immediately apparent is how much value is lost when vehicles move from the first cluster (0km to <10,000km) to the second (10,00km to <20,000km). On average, used vehicles lose 15% of their absolute value when crossing this threshold. So, vehicles in the second category are worth 15% less than those in the first.

This makes sense, as prices will be more elastic as vehicles accumulate their first significant amount of mileage and age. Moving up two clusters to the <40,000km bracket, the loss is between approximately 10% and 9% respectively. However, this average loss is halved to around 4% to 5% once used vehicles hit the 40,000km category. This change continues to be quite steady up until the 99,000km cluster.

Out of the ordinary

Something seemingly out of the ordinary happens once used vehicles pass the 100,000km boundary. These models suddenly accumulate an average loss of 8% as they move into the mileage cluster.

One explanation for this pattern is that buyers experience irrational anxiety on crossing this threshold. Another explanation is that many prospective buyers are setting online search filters that discriminate against vehicles at the 100,000km mark and above.

Sellers might also make a greater effort when it comes to clearing these vehicles out of their portfolio. Vehicles in the 90,000km to <100,000km category spend more time in stock than the previous and following clusters. However, it is likely a combination of all these factors.

After this point, the losses revert to between 4% and 6%. Unsurprisingly, the same phenomenon occurs at the 200,000km threshold. However, the losses are slightly greater at 9%, then vehicles see a very small drop of 0.4% moving into the next bracket.

Once again, the mileage-cluster-induced losses revert to between 4% and 6%. Not surprisingly, the same pattern occurs at the 200,000km threshold. Although, the losses are slightly more accentuated at 9% and vehicles lose very little as they move into the next mileage category.  

Larger losses for petrol

These trends are more accentuated for petrol powertrains than for diesel models. Petrol vehicles lose more value as they accumulate mileage. This makes sense, as these engines are recognised as having shorter lifespans than ones powered by diesel.

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From one mileage bracket to the next, petrol vehicles see greater losses in price on average. Meanwhile, diesel-powered vehicles depreciate slightly more slowly between each benchmark.

The psychological barriers at the 100,000km and 200,000km thresholds trigger a higher loss of 11% for petrol vehicles at both markers. Diesel vehicles see a loss of between approximately 7% and 9%, respectively. This illustrates how higher mileages are less of an issue for diesel engines on the used-vehicle market.

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The takeaway

This analysis reveals that there are quantifiable psychological barriers to buying and selling vehicles at the 100,000km and 200,000km thresholds. These models trigger a step change as their perceived attractiveness drops. At this point, they enter a different used-vehicle category as their values come under pressure.

For buyers, there might be an opportunity to get a very similar vehicle at a reduced price at this point. Sellers should ideally try to avoid models in these clusters. This could be achieved by keeping vehicles in a fleet for possibly just a few more months to move them into the next cluster or sell them slightly earlier

How has the European used-convertible market changed?

The used-convertible market has seen considerable change in many European countries since 2021. Autovista Group experts from France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Switzerland and the UK investigate the subject with Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker.

Convertibles are a unique body type, offering an extra level of immersion and style to the driving experience. Echoing the overall automotive industry, the segment has been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and semiconductor shortage in recent years.

However, arguably the biggest factor affecting the used-convertible market has been the shrinking number of new models available to buyers.

‘The year-on-year decline in the volume of new convertibles is mainly the result of a dwindling supply. Manufacturers have been reducing their new convertible offerings to focus on more environmentally friendly models, which help them to comply better with European regulations,’ commented Ana Azofra, Autovista Group head of valuations and insights, Spain.

‘With such a low volume of new convertibles, the amount of used convertibles on the market is very small and most of the changes can be explained this way,’ she said.

This falling availability of new convertibles has been pronounced in the mass market. ‘In the past years or even decades, more mainstream models like the Volkswagen Golf or the Opel Astra had the option of a convertible variant to have a “lifestyle” offer,’ explained Hans-Peter Annen, head of valuations and insights at Eurotax Switzerland.

‘This has changed in the last few years, as those “additional” or “model enhancing” convertibles have been discontinued, often without a successor. So, we now find the remaining convertibles and coupés are concentrated more in the sporty segment than in the conventional mass-market model ranges’ added Annen.

Volume variation

Used convertibles have seen different performances across Europe, with varied volumes of adverts recorded. Compared to the start of 2021, these volumes declined in Spain and France by almost 25% and 22% respectively. Meanwhile, in the UK, volumes dropped by nearly 15%.

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‘In general, the volume of used convertible models has fallen since 2021, as year-on-year there are fewer new models offered by OEMs. The availability tends to increase in the winter months and fall when demand is at its strongest,’ outlined Jayson Whittington, Glass’s chief editor, cars and leisure vehicles.

One reason fewer new convertibles are being filtered into the used market is that the body type may not suit the trend towards electric vehicles (EVs).

‘Convertibles will be less and less available in the used-car market, as there will be fewer new vehicles with a convertible body type due to the EV transition. Convertibles are heavier, offer less range and have less space for a battery,’ stated Ludovic Percier, Autovista Group residual value and market analyst for France.

Increasing supply

However, not all markets are adhering to this declining trend. Switzerland saw the supply of used convertibles increase by over 15%, with stable development forecast for the future. Italy has seen volumes decline by 10%, however, this has remained relatively balanced in the last three years.

‘There have been many fluctuations in this metric since the start of 2021. Considering that average stock days have remained fairly stable, this figure should not be interpreted as a decline in interest in the category. Instead, it should be seen as a return to a more stable market after the various crises faced by the automotive industry since COVID-19,’ said Marco Pasquetti, head of valuations, Autovista Group Italy.

‘Convertibles are a relatively low-volume market, so the possibility that there may be more instability than in other categories must be considered. However, expect volumes to stabilise, at least in the short term,’ he stated.

Future impact

Italy may also see the transition to EVs affect its used-convertible market in the future. ‘To date, the only electric convertible models on sale in Italy are the Fiat 500C, the Mini Cabrio and the Smart Fortwo. As far as sports cars are concerned, there is only the Maserati GranCabrio,’ outlined Pasquetti.

‘Overall, electric convertible volumes are very low, and this could affect the second-hand market in a few years,’ he added.

For France and Austria, lower used convertible volumes are forecast as the segment’s popularity drops. ‘We expect a further volume decrease for used convertibles, as the body type is becoming less and less popular on the new-car market,’ commented Rainer Hintermayer, market analyst at Eurotax Austria.

Declines are predicted over the next few years in the UK too. ‘Used convertible volume will continue to decrease unless OEMs ramp up production. This is unlikely to happen as consumer trends have shifted towards other body styles,’ explained Whittington.

Comparing coupe supply

The coupé segment is also largely populated by premium models and sports cars. It has experienced differing levels of used-vehicle supply in some regions compared with convertibles.

‘After a parallel phase for convertible and coupé body types between 2021 and the middle of 2022, the volume of convertibles has increased whereas coupés have remained stable in Switzerland,’ said Annen.

‘This differing development since the middle of 2022 could be the result of more convertible new cars entering the market than coupés. Therefore, this would mean more used convertibles are on the market,’ he outlined.

However, in some markets like the UK, there is little difference in volume levels. ‘Coupé models have followed a similar pattern to convertibles, although, they do not suffer from seasonal effects,’ stated Whittington.

Increasing car ages

Across all six markets, the average age of used convertibles available for sale has risen. This metric measures the amount of time between a convertible’s new-car registration and the current date.

Combining data from all markets, convertible car age has risen from an average of just over 55 months to nearly 78 months, an increase of just under two years.

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The UK has suffered the biggest jump in this segment since 2021, with ages increasing from just under 58 months to around 98 months on average. This means convertibles on offer are over 40 months older than compared to three years ago.

‘The data clearly indicates the average age of used convertible models has increased since 2021. That said, the average of all body styles has also increased significantly. This is likely as a result of lower volumes of registrations in the new car market since the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing the average age of the vehicle parc,’ Whittington commented.

‘However, convertibles are on average the oldest of all body styles. This is due to OEMs ceasing production of many convertible models,’ he explained.

In Switzerland, the age has risen by over two years to around 85 months on average. Meanwhile, available convertibles are 76 months old on average in France, contrasted with an age of just over 56 months at the start of 2021.

Alongside the UK, these three countries recorded the highest increases out of the six markets, while also offering the oldest convertibles on average.

‘In France, drivers were keeping their cars for a longer time as dealerships were postponing their new car sales due to a lack of supply. This has a snowball effect on used-car buyers, as they could not buy cars as there was a lack of supply too,’ explained Percier.

New convertible impact

In Austria, the average age of convertibles has risen by nearly 17 months compared to 2021. ‘This increased age of used convertible may be caused by falling new convertible registrations. [According to Statistik Austria], in 2011, there were 5,258 new convertibles registered, dropping to only 2,100 in 2021 and 1,570 in 2023,’ outlined Rainer.

In Spain, used convertibles have reached an average age of around 72 months, which has grown by nearly 15 months since the start of 2021. This is in line with rising car ages across all body types in this period, as supply has dropped due to the COVID-19 pandemic and semiconductor shortages.

‘In convertibles, this trend is very marked and even more visible as they started from very high average ages. Specifically, they have gone from four to almost six years old. This behaviour is logical, as the sales of used cars have been declining overall and used convertibles will inevitably become older and older,’ Azofra noted.

Italy saw the smallest increase in convertible car age, rising by just over seven months to around 53 months on average. This is also the youngest average age of the six markets.

Differing coupé development

Compared to convertibles, coupés have seen differing developments in this metric depending on the market. In Italy, the average age in this segment has increased by only two months since the start of 2021.

‘There has been a downward trend for coupés from the second half of 2023 onwards, partly thanks to models that are still very successful on the new-car market, such as the Porsche 911. These models lower the average age,’ stated Pasquetti.

‘Another reason for a dropping average age is that there has been a significant reduction in the second-hand volumes of some coupé models that have been out of production for many years,’ he outlined.

However, in Switzerland, an opposite trend has been observed. ‘As expected, both coupé and convertible car ages have increased very similarly, and more than mainstream body types like SUVs,’ commented Annen.

‘As both coupés and convertibles are offered less frequently in the new-car market compared to ten years ago, it is not surprising that the average age has increased more than the overall used-car average,’ he added.

Rising stock days

The average number of days used convertibles spent in stock has risen in all six markets compared to 2021. Yet, this is a more marginal difference in some markets, such as Italy. In this case, convertibles remained in stock for just over 79 days on average. This is around one and a half days more than at the beginning of 2021.

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‘On average, convertibles have higher stock days than the market average, since they are niche vehicles that require a little more thought to buy,’ Pasquetti explained.

‘Yet, figures have dropped sharply compared to the beginning of 2024 when used convertibles were in stock for almost 95 days. Overall, however, apart from some fluctuations related to seasonality, this situation is reasonably stable over time,’ he stated.

Seasonality effects

In the UK, average days in stock for all body types have increased in the last three years. For used convertibles, this metric sits at over 59 days in August, up just two days from the start of 2021.

However, due to seasonality, the segment has endured sharp peaks, reaching over 81 days in February this year. Meanwhile, during the summer and autumn months, stock days dropped to around 33 on average.

‘Convertible models tend to take the most days to sell out of all body types, particularly in the winter months. This is unsurprising, as the UK climate is not ideal for convertible ownership in winter, unless of course, it is a model that benefits from a folding metal roof,’ observed Whittington.

The Austrian convertible market has also been affected by seasonality and has evolved similarly to the overall market. In Spain, convertible stock days have increased by around eight days on average in the last three years. This was mainly caused by a jump in August to over 97 days.

‘Convertibles continue to have a very high level of stock retention, which is higher than other body styles. They are expensive models, with high ownership and usage costs. Their remarketing is more complicated compared to other body types,’ said Azofra.

Convertible stock days in France have risen by nearly 12 days since the start of 2021, now sitting at 73 days. Yet, the biggest increase across the six markets was seen in Switzerland. This metric increased by over 20 days with used convertibles spending around 103 days in stock.

Stable price changes

Looking at the average number of price changes for used convertibles, including increases and decreases, all six markets remained stable compared to the start of 2021.

Combining these regions, there were just over two price changes on average, which has risen very slightly from three years ago.

Spain and Italy saw the biggest development in this metric. The former has risen from an average of 2.1 price changes at the start of 2021 to 2.4 in August 2024.

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‘On average, used convertibles have seen more price changes in recent years, but this is similar to the other body types. As this is a low-volume segment with fewer models, the entry and exit of a single model can lead to a changing average,’ noted Azofra.

Italy now sits at 2.1 price changes on average, compared to 1.9 three years ago. ‘Here too, the situation is not dissimilar from the market average and is linked to the decline in used-car values. Sellers have had to lower their initial list prices to be able to sell cars in stock that were selling much more easily until the middle of 2022,’ outlined Pasquetti.

Price sensitivity

In Switzerland, average price changes for used convertibles have stabilised. There have been on average around two price changes for models in the segment since the start of 2021.

‘The average number of price changes from 2021 has been constant and slightly below the average of other body types like SUVs. A reason may be that the convertible body style has lost a bit of popularity and therefore is more price-sensitive than the popular SUV market for example,’ commented Annen.

Average price changes in France have also stayed around two, despite a rise across most segments to over three price changes near the start of 2021.

The UK has the highest number of price changes on average for the body type, at just under three. Despite only a marginal change from the start of 2021, convertibles have experienced a peak in this metric of 4.1 during the start of 2024, and a low of two in July 2021.

‘The total number of price changes for convertible models has increased since 2021, although so have all body styles. In terms of seasonal norms, the volume of price changes for convertibles falls in the UK in spring and summer and clearly follows a very different development to other body styles,’ explained Whittington.

An uncertain future

The used-convertible market has been met with many challenges such as declining volumes, rising ages and increasing days in stock. This has been the result of many factors. Alongside COVID-19 and the semiconductor shortage which has affected all body types, fewer new convertible models are available, while more mass-market models are discontinued.

The transition to electric powertrains poses another risk to used convertibles moving forward. With some markets predicting a decline in volume over the next few years, others expect stability. So, convertibles may still enjoy some more time in the sun, depending on the market.